
As regional dangers and international conflicts simmer, South Korea’s birth rate has declined for the majority of the last ten years, indicating challenges for the military.
According to a recent assessment, the number of South Korean troops has decreased by 20% over the last six years, largely due to a shortage of young men. This is in accordance with the country’s aging population and declining labor force in one of the world’s most quickly aging nations.
According to a report by the Defense Ministry, the fall was caused by “complicated circumstances,” such as population decline and fewer males aspiring to become officers as a result of “soldier treatment.” Although studies and surveys have previously brought attention to the famously harsh conditions in the military, the report did not go into detail on that treatment.
The military reported that as of July, it had 450,000 troops, compared to 563,000 in 2019.
“If the number of standing army (members) continues to decline, there can be difficulties in securing elite manpower and limits in operating equipment,” warned the report, shared last week by lawmaker Choo Mi-ae.
The news comes at a bad time for South Korea, a key Western ally which hosts huge numbers of US troops and has a mutual defense treaty with Washington.
Just across the border, neighboring North Korea has sent tens of thousands of soldiers to fight for Russia along the front lines with Ukraine – raising fears that Moscow may share advanced military technology with Pyongyang in exchange, violating international sanctions.
The ruling Kim family in North Korea has persisted in using hate speech, warning that Seoul is still “the enemy” and threatening to use nuclear weapons to destroy South Korea if it is attacked.
In addition to its own demographic problems and declining birth rate, the North’s technology lags well behind that of the South, which is currently looking to innovate to fill the void in military recruitment.
Triple the soldiers, double the babies
North Korea appears to have certain advantages.
According to the CIA World Factbook, North Korea has up to 1.3 million members of its military forces, making it one of the most militarized countries in the world. That is about three times more troops than South Korea has.
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According to UN data, North Korea’s fertility rate—which is the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime—is also significantly greater than South Korea’s, coming in at 1.77 in 2025 as opposed to 0.75. According to Jooyung Lee, a senior economist at the Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute, the North has been producing more children annually than the South since 2018.
There are roughly 3.1 million troops in South Korea’s reserve army. Even if they might just receive basic training, they would have the numbers required for possible conflict—and that does not even account for the 28,500 US troops now stationed there.
Given that its fertility rate has decreased in the years following the pandemic, Pyongyang is likewise dealing with its own population issues. Kim Jong Un, the country’s dictatorial leader, brought up the issue during a national summit of mothers in 2023, urging them to “give birth to many children” as a patriotic duty.
It’s hard to tell how much this has impacted the North Korean military so far. But the fact that Pyongyang has sent tens of thousands of troops to fight for Russia suggests Kim “doesn’t feel concerned about not having enough soldiers on board to do the task of defending the homeland,” Seiler said.
Their military has also enlisted more women to fill whatever gaps do exist. This trend began near the turn of the century after a previous dip in fertility, Lee said, with the proportion of female recruits now reaching as high as 20% by some estimates.
Many are younger women serving in the military’s communications, administrative and anti-aircraft artillery sectors, said Lee, who has interviewed many North Korean refugees who fled the country. Meanwhile, middle-aged and older women have been mobilized to fill gaps in other civilian sectors.
By contrast, women are not conscripted in South Korea – a controversial point that has stoked resentment among some young Korean men who argue their mandatory service puts them at a disadvantage in their studies, careers and personal lives.
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As of 2023, volunteer females accounted for only 3.6% of the entire military, according to the Defense Ministry.
Some experts have suggested that conscripting more women could solve South Korea’s problem, which the Defense Ministry has not ruled out. But Choi, the national security professor, argued the country needs to move away from the idea of increasing its manpower – and instead focus on advancing its technology and making the troops elite.
While people can volunteer to become professional cadres who serve longer terms and train with more advanced weapons, the number of applicants has dropped steadily over the years.
High-profile cases of hazing, bullying and harassment within the South Korean military may have contributed to negative perceptions of the force.
In recent years, the government has loosened restrictions on conscripts – including allowing them to use cell phones at certain times of the day – and offered a longer civilian service alternative to conscription.